Saving Daylight

I went out for a run at 3:30 in the afternoon. I usually go at 9:30 in the morning but it was raining so I held off until 3:30.

Not too long ago I had a single time slot for a workout: 5 a.m. If I got up and went I was proud of myself, if I missed it there was no second chance and I’d berate myself all day.

Now, though, my days are much more fluid.

I eschew schedules. Always have.

I have a certain number of things that need to be accomplished and I will put them in logical order and work through them. I will work until they are done. But the same thing every day? No, thank you.

I didn’t used to have this freedom. I had to have my butt in a chair every day by 8:30 a.m. I was stuck in that chair until 5:30 p.m. That was me paying my dues.

But now I have control over my own destiny and I’m a little bit like the new pilot asking in mid-air, “where to?”

Come, Gypsy, tell us how much we'll make

ROI models are a lot like fortune telling. Intuition, experience, and observation are the tools used to predict the future. And yet, like any forecast, an ROI (return on investment) model is subject to change.

Getting my husband to agree to anything is like getting legislation through Congress. So I presented an ROI model to Cuk when I wanted to convince him to support my PhD program.

I estimated how much the degree would cost in student loans ($4000/qtr), then I multiplied that over a conservative estimate of how long it would take (5 years). I then researched how much I could expect to earn after completing the PhD (80% more than 2006’s salary) and multiplied that over how long I would be working afterwards (30 years).

The purpose of an ROI model is to convince people that an idea’s payoff is worth the costs associated. Cuk agreed the investment was sound. I enrolled in Capella University’s curriculum for achievement of a PhD in Organizational Management in the fall of 2006.

Take a Chance

What I have learned about an ROI model since that initial attempt is that a complete model must include peripheral costs associated with potential interruptions. These are risks in the ROI model. These risks adjust figures and change the model, rendering it at best inaccurate and at worst a terrible misrepresentation of reality.

For example, the earnings piece of my PhD ROI model is affected by several factors that, in 2006, were unforeseen: 1) the economy tanked in 2008 and employers adjusted their pay grades downward because the market was flooded with talent and 2) unemployed workers flooded universities pursuing degrees, creating a highly-educated talent pool.

See the Unforeseen

Other interruptions include cultural and personal change. For example, from 2008 until 2011, in resounding chorus, workers sang, “just be glad you have a job!”